什麼是40法則
Mar 24, 2021
根據麥肯錫公司的研究報告，行業中收入最高的五分之一公司所賺取的利潤佔其行業利潤的近90％，平均年利潤為14億美元。相比之下，中等規模的公司平均僅獲得了4,700萬美元的利潤。這意味著在過去十年中，收入最高的五分之一公司的平均股東總回報率最高（每年+ 17％），而收入最低的五分之一公司的平均股東回報率最低（每年+ 7％）。通過應用40法則，我們能夠篩選出未來的領導者。
什麼是40法則40法則，即收入增長率加上利潤率應等於或大於40％。風險資本家想出了一種簡單的方法來決定是否投資於軟件初創企業。這是一種通過考慮軟件業務的兩個最重要指標（增長和盈利能力）來衡量軟件業務健康狀況的一種經驗法則。11
邏輯:為了推動收入增長，公司一般需要產生費用，因此公司的成長和盈利能力通常彼此矛盾。在兩者之間找到正確的平衡可能很棘手，40法則試圖在兩者之間取得平衡，只要公司表現出強勁的增長，投資者通常願意忍受短期的低利潤甚至虧損。2
如何計算： 以公司A為例，公司A的收入正以20％的增速增長。要符合40法則，公司A應該產生至少20％的EBITDA（息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤）利潤率。公司的收入增速與EBITDA利潤率的總和越高，則代表公司更具投資的吸引力。高於40的分數是及格分數，而低於40的分數則代表未通過40法則的測試。3
為什麼要使用EBITDA 每家公司的資本結構均有所不同，同時，每家公司所應用的固定/無形資產資本化的會計準則及方式亦有所不同。EBITDA通過消除債務利息、公司間稅收及會計政策的差異來提升公司與公司之間的可比性。4
應用：該法則最初用作於軟件即服務（SaaS）公司的快速健康檢查，但目前它的應用已擴展到大多數軟件公司。通常處於虧損狀態的初創公司必須憑藉更高的收入增長才能通過40法則，而收入增長在逐漸放緩且較成熟的公司則需要專注於提升其利潤率，以達到40％的目標。
局限性：若採用短期的數據，40法則可能會產生不可靠的結果，這是因為公司短時間的強勁增長一般難以長時間維持，因此40法則是需要採用較長年期的數據，以提升結果的準確度。貝恩公司在2013年至2017年對86家公司進行研究，其中只有25％的公司連續三年或以上表現通過40法則，17%的公司連續5年表現通過40法則。5
如何使用它： 投資者可將40法則用作為高成長公司的選股標準，這類公司普遍傾向於在銷售，營銷和研發上投入大量資金，以刺激其未來的收入增長。40法則可幫助投資者篩選尚未盈利但具有強勁收入增長前景的公司。如今，許多投資者使用它來評估任何快速發展的數字經濟公司。6
References:
1. https://www.saasholic.com/the-rule-of-40-for-saas-and-subscription-business/#:~:text=The%20famous%20investor%20and%20also,The%20Rule%20of%2040%25%E2%80%9D
2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/25/introducing-the-rule-of-40-and-why-investors-shoul.aspx
3. https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/09/25/introducing-the-rule-of-40-and-why-investors-shoul.aspx
4. https://www.thesaascfo.com/rule-of-40-saas/#:~:text=The%20rule%20of%2040%20formula,is%20below%20the%2040%25%20target
5. https://www.bain.com/contentassets/b514f7b986c949a0b9c24d3748fb4fef/bain-brief-hacking-softwares-rule-of-40.pdf
6. https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/discover-a-great-tool-for-valuing-high-growth-companies
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